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Confidence interval

Also called confidence level, CI

The range your result is consistent with, and the confidence level is how often that kind of range would contain the truth.

For a symmetric interval, add and subtract the margin of error from the estimate: 62% ±5 gives 57% to 67%. The confidence level, often 90%, 95% or 99%, describes how often intervals produced by the method would contain the population value across repeated samples.

Raising the confidence level widens the interval. At the same sample size, 99% confidence buys certainty about the procedure by giving up precision about the number. Most published survey work uses 95% because it is the convention, not because it is optimal; what matters is that you say which one you used.

Report the interval alongside the estimate so readers can see its sampling uncertainty.

Where it goes wrong

Choosing the confidence level after seeing the data. Picking 90% because the result then looks conclusive is the same mistake as running the test again until it passes.

See also

Margin of error
An estimate of sampling uncertainty around a survey percentage, stated at a chosen confidence level.
Sample size
The number of responses in your analysis. It affects the precision of your estimates.
Statistical significance
A statement about how often chance alone would produce a difference at least as large as the one you found, if there were really no difference.

All 35 terms

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Put it into practice in your next survey.